Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?
1%
Limited history-1.1pp
24h activity $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a -1.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (down 1.8pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
-1.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
60
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 40.8pp from 47% to 6%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
47%
21 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
47%
21 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
29%
21 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
24%
21 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
12%
21 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
6%
24 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.8pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.1% | 5.7% | -1.8pp | $22K | active |
| Below 3.6% | 1.2% | -1.1pp | $5K | active |
| Below 4.5% | 20.5% | -12.0pp | $2K | active |
| Below 4.4% | 11.0% | -13.5pp | $5K | active |
| Below 4.6% | 19.0% | -21.5pp | $303 | active |
| Below 3.7% | 3.2% | +0.3pp | $53K | active |
| Below 3.9% | 1.4% | -1.1pp | $4K | active |
| Below 3.8% | 2.2% | +0.05pp | $6K | active |
| Below 4.3% | 8.0% | -8.5pp | $5K | active |
| Below 4.7% | 31.0% | -21.5pp | $64 | active |
| Below 3.5% | 2.4% | -0.05pp | $2K | active |
| Below 4.2% | 8.5% | -2.0pp | $8K | active |
| Below 1.0% | 1.0% | — | $831 | active |
| Below 3.0% | 1.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Below 2.0% | 1.3% | -0.3pp | $1K | active |
| Below 4.0% | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC