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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-0.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
0%
16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
0%
16 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
0%
19 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
0%
20 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Niculescu | 100.0% | +2.6pp | $71K | awaiting resolution |
| Sorin Grindeanu | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Siegfried Mureșan | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $43K | awaiting resolution |
| Leonardo Badea | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $38K | awaiting resolution |
| Alexandru Nazare | 0.1% | -0.5pp | $65K | awaiting resolution |
| Ilie Bolojan | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| George Simion | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alexandru Rogobete | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $52K | awaiting resolution |
| Eugen Tomac | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $56K | awaiting resolution |
| Victor Ponta | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $40K | awaiting resolution |
| Traian Basescu | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $41K | awaiting resolution |
| Adrian Veștea | 0.1% | — | $49K | awaiting resolution |
| Cătălin Predoiu | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Radu Burnete | 0.1% | — | $48K | awaiting resolution |
| Delia Velculescu | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Hunor Kelemen | 0.1% | — | $43K | awaiting resolution |
| Șerban Matei | 0.1% | — | $40K | awaiting resolution |
| Dan Motreanu | 0.1% | — | $43K | awaiting resolution |
| Dragoș Pîslaru | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $38K | awaiting resolution |
| Lucian Croitoru | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Elena Lasconi | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ionuț Dumitru | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Calin Georgescu | 0.1% | — | $38K | awaiting resolution |
| Anca Dragu | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Vasile Dîncu | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dominic Fritz | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sebastian Burduja | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Mircea Geoană | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ciprian Ciucu | 0.1% | — | $37K | awaiting resolution |
| Alexandru Rafila | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Lucian Isar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dacian Cioloș | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Mugur Isărescu | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Marcel Ciolacu | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nicolae Ciucă | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Emil Boc | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cătălin Drulă | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Raluca Turcan | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)