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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -15.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Recent probability movement (down 15.8pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
12%
24h Change
-15.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 22.9pp, from 4% to 27%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.
4%
12 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
4%
12 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
4%
12 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
4%
13 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
27%
15 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
12%
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 15.8pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC