Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ali G be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
1%
Limited history-26.1pp
24h activity $986Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a +0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
5%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.5pp from 5% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
5%
12 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
5%
12 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
5%
12 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
5%
13 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
4%
15 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
5%
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $24K and 24h activity is $50. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali G | 1.4% | -26.1pp | $9K | active |
| James Talarico | 3.6% | +0.8pp | $24K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 15.5% | +5.0pp | $21K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 28.5% | — | $35K | active |
| Mark Carney | 15.0% | -1.5pp | $3K | active |
| Sam Altman | 5.0% | +0.5pp | $24K | active |
| Elon Musk | 6.5% | — | $43K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 1.1% | +0.3pp | $2K | active |
| Dario Amodei | 7.5% | +0.5pp | $18K | active |
| Donald Trump | 6.5% | — | $25K | active |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 3.8% | +0.05pp | $24K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 8.0% | +1.0pp | $21K | active |
| Artificial Intelligence | 6.3% | — | $23K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 5.2% | — | $23K | active |
| Alysa Liu | 2.2% | +0.9pp | $21K | active |
| Christina Koch | 4.5% | +0.8pp | $21K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2.6% | -0.7pp | $95 | active |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 3.3% | +0.05pp | $820 | active |
| Jerome Powell | 1.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Péter Magyar | 3.2% | +0.3pp | $21K | active |
| Jeremy Hansen | 3.1% | -0.8pp | $21K | active |
| Bad Bunny | 3.7% | -0.3pp | $26K | active |
| Taylor Swift | 2.6% | +1.7pp | $20K | active |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 3.4% | — | $20K | active |
| Victor Glover | 5.2% | — | $21K | active |
| ChatGPT | 2.6% | -0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Reid Wiseman | 4.5% | -0.1pp | $21K | active |
| Ali Khamenei | 3.0% | — | $434 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC