Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $101KCloses 7 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
0%
16 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
0%
16 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
0%
16 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
17 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
20 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $990K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.2% | +0.05pp | $2.7M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 15.8% | -0.2pp | $433K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.9% | -0.1pp | $341K | active |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | +0.1pp | $233K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 6.3% | — | $293K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2% | -0.3pp | $349K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.6% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 16.4% | — | $330K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.9% | -0.3pp | $778K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 9.7% | — | $275K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.3% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Jon Stewart | 0.4% | +0.05pp | $299K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $1.7M | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.6% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | -0.05pp | $606K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.5% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.3% | -0.1pp | $410K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.5% | — | $217K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | — | $847K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1% | — | $866K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $362K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.5% | — | $893K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Andy Beshear | 2.5% | — | $600K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | — | $388K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Wes Moore | 1.8% | — | $352K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $461K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
Probability sum: 94.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC