Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
96%
Limited history+81.8pp
24h activity $154KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 67% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
67%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
67%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
16
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 23.5pp from 43% to 67%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
43%
18 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
56%
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
64%
19 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
59%
19 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
60%
19 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
67%
19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 96.3% | +81.8pp | $84K | active |
| September 23 | 66.5% | — | $26K | active |
| September 25 | 83.5% | — | $38K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources. Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland. This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered. Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 24 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC