Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?
61%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $143Closes 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 28% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
28%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
28%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 0.5pp from 28% to 28%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
28%
15 Sept 2026, 12:40 UTC
28%
15 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
28%
15 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
28%
15 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
34%
17 Sept 2026, 12:35 UTC
28%
19 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $66. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 61.0% | +1.5pp | $9K | active |
| September 30 | 28.0% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| December 31 | 84.0% | -1.5pp | $33K | active |
| September 15 | 3.4% | +0.3pp | $1K | active |
| January 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -1.2pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC