Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
5%
Limited history
24h activity $581Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 35% probability for this outcome, a +17.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
35%Recent probability movement (up 17.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
35%
24h Change
+17.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 17.0pp, from 21% to 38%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC.
17%
12 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
17%
12 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
17%
12 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
17%
12 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
38%
15 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
35%
16 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 17.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susie Wiles | 35.0% | +17.5pp | $25K | active |
| Scott Bessent | 5.0% | — | $16K | active |
| Kash Patel | 18.0% | +3.5pp | $1K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 39.8% | +12.3pp | $626 | active |
| Lee Zeldin | 8.0% | -1.0pp | $1K | active |
| Markwayne Mullin | 27.5% | +10.0pp | $156 | active |
| Stephen Miller | 10.5% | +4.5pp | $300 | active |
| Tom Homan | 26.0% | +5.0pp | $55 | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 23.0% | +2.0pp | $3K | active |
| Howard Lutnick | 14.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 13.5% | +2.5pp | $400 | active |
| Marco Rubio | 4.5% | — | $14K | active |
| David Sacks | 8.2% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| John Ratcliffe | 9.5% | — | $126 | active |
| Russell Vought | 17.0% | -0.5pp | $132 | active |
| Dan Scavino | 27.1% | -0.5pp | $20 | active |
| Dan Bongino | 100.0% | +15.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pam Bondi | 100.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 100.0% | +40.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Karoline Leavitt | 100.0% | +80.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 100.0% | +16.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC