Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
22%
Limited history-20.0pp
24h activity $106KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 36% probability for this outcome, a -30.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
36%Recent probability movement (down 30.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
36%
24h Change
-30.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
36
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 49.5pp from 86% to 36%, gradually rather than in one jump.
86%
26 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
85%
26 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
86%
26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
65%
26 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
71%
26 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
36%
28 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 30.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 21.5% | -20.0pp | $61K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 32.0% | -37.0pp | $41K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 36.0% | -30.0pp | $17K | active |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC