Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
19%
Limited history-1.1pp
24h activity $190Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
10%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
10%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Sacks | 19.3% | -1.1pp | $441 | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 25.0% | -6.0pp | $1K | active |
| Scott Bessent | 8.5% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Kash Patel | 25.0% | +1.0pp | $1K | active |
| Stephen Miller | 9.0% | -1.0pp | $10K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 24.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 22.9% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Howard Lutnick | 29.5% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| Susie Wiles | 23.0% | -1.5pp | $1K | active |
| Lee Zeldin | 15.5% | -2.5pp | $887 | active |
| Marco Rubio | 6.5% | -2.0pp | $12K | active |
| Markwayne Mullin | 18.0% | — | $325 | active |
| John Ratcliffe | 15.0% | +1.0pp | $9K | active |
| Russell Vought | 10.0% | — | $49 | active |
| Tom Homan | 27.0% | — | $33 | active |
| Dan Scavino | 29.4% | +0.3pp | $118 | active |
| Dan Bongino | 100.0% | +15.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pam Bondi | 100.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 100.0% | +40.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Karoline Leavitt | 100.0% | +80.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 100.0% | +16.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
19%
25%
9%
25%
9%
25%