Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
83%
Limited history+38.0pp
24h activity $42KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 95% probability for this outcome, a +17.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
95%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
95%
24h Change
+17.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 22.8pp from 72% to 95%, gradually rather than in one jump.
72%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
72%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
72%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
72%
2 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
85%
6 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
95%
6 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 17.3pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $5K and 24h activity is $4K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 82.5% | +38.0pp | $9K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 98.2% | +19.4pp | $2K | active |
| September 30, 2027 | 95.1% | +17.3pp | $5K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 94.6% | +20.8pp | $6K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 89.5% | +21.0pp | $4K | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Oct 2027, 03:59 UTC