Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
17%
Limited history-3.0pp
24h activity $5KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 51% probability for this outcome, a -16.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
51%Recent probability movement (down 16.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
51%
24h Change
-16.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 13.5pp, from 65% to 51%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
61%
16 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
60%
16 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
61%
16 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
61%
16 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
51%
20 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
51%
20 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 16.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 16.5% | -3.0pp | $30K | active |
| January 31, 2027 | 50.5% | -16.5pp | $23K | active |
| January 15, 2027 | 40.5% | — | $23K | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pedro Sánchez continuing as Prime Minister in an acting or caretaker capacity will not be considered a cessation of office. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC