Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
32%
Limited history-3.0pp
24h activity $209KCloses 28 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
8 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
1%
8 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
1%
8 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
1%
8 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
1%
8 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
1%
12 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 31.5% | -3.0pp | $347K | active |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.1% | — | $233K | active |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 46.3% | +5.0pp | $147K | active |
| Naftali Bennett | 13.5% | +2.0pp | $146K | active |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $212K | active |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $155K | active |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $151K | active |
| Ofer Winter | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $113K | active |
| Yair Golan | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $215K | active |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.1% | — | $209K | active |
| Amir Ohana | 0.1% | — | $181K | active |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1% | — | $115K | active |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1% | — | $113K | active |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.1% | — | $87K | active |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.1% | — | $270K | active |
| Yariv Levin | 0.1% | — | $152K | active |
| Nir Barkat | 0.1% | — | $235K | active |
| Israel Katz | 0.1% | — | $89K | active |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.1% | — | $161K | active |
Probability sum: 96.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC