Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
2%
Limited history+0.7pp
24h activity $15KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 42% probability for this outcome, a +16.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
42%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
42%
24h Change
+16.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 13.0pp, from 31% to 44%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC.
32%
17 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
27%
17 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
26%
17 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
26%
17 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
44%
21 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
42%
21 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 16.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $13K and 24h activity is $229. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| by December 31, 2026 | 2.4% | +0.7pp | $79K | active |
| by September 30, 2027 | 22.5% | +8.0pp | $5K | active |
| by December 31, 2027 | 42.0% | +16.5pp | $13K | active |
| by June 30, 2027 | 21.0% | +5.5pp | $5K | active |
| by March 31, 2027 | 7.5% | — | $3K | active |
| by December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| by September 30, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| by June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| by March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC