Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $31KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmundo González | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $129K | active |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 24.5% | -0.5pp | $85K | active |
| Nicolás Maduro | 68.8% | +0.6pp | $99K | active |
| No Head of State | 2.6% | +0.8pp | $84K | active |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | — | $249K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $246K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1% | — | $177K | active |
| María Corina Machado | 1.4% | +0.1pp | $93K | active |
| Donald Trump | 0.1% | — | $124K | active |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $70K | active |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0.1% | — | $67K | active |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0.1% | — | $65K | active |
| Richard Grenell | 0.1% | — | $137K | active |
| Evan Pettus | 0.1% | — | $248K | active |
| Dan Caine | 0.1% | — | $117K | active |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0.1% | — | $198K | active |
Probability sum: 98.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC