Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
46%
Limited history-6.2pp
24h activity $5KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.2pp from 4% to 4%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
9 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
4%
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
4%
9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
4%
9 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
4%
13 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
4%
13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $752 and 24h activity is $94. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 45.5% | -6.2pp | $23K | active |
| Mike Waltz | 4.5% | +1.9pp | $882 | active |
| Lee Zeldin | 4.3% | -0.1pp | $752 | active |
| Susie Wiles | 7.4% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 8.0% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5.4% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Linda McMahon | 0.5% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Russell T. Vought | 4.7% | — | $736 | active |
| Scott Bessent | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $12K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 1.5% | -1.3pp | $11K | active |
| Howard Lutnick | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Kelly Loeffler | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Brooke Rollins | 2.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Chris Wright | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Sean Duffy | 0.3% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Doug Collins | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| John Ratcliffe | 0.3% | -1.1pp | $11K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Jamieson Greer | 0.7% | — | $11K | active |
| Scott Turner | 0.3% | -0.6pp | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 89.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC