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Last recorded probability
99%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
99%
24h Change
+77.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
92
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the player that is officially announced by the listed team to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event that no starting quarterback is officially announced by the team, this market will resolve in favor of the listed quarterback who takes the field on the listed team’s first offensive play. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the Cleveland Browns’ Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback who first directly receives a snap in the game. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or the Cleveland Browns; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 99.3% | +77.8pp | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| Shedeur Sanders | 0.7% | -73.3pp | $20K | awaiting resolution |
| Dillon Gabriel | 0.1% | — | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| Taylor Green | 0.1% | — | $20K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 100.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)