Politics

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

19%

Market data currentMeaningful move-1.8pp (24h)

Probability is barely changed (down 1.8pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.

Signal: High

Current

19%

24h Change

-1.8pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 18.7%
No implied probability: 81.3%
Liquidity: $365K
24h activity: $92K
Lifetime volume: $14.7M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.8pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Wes Moore	1.4%	-0.1pp	$765K	active
Graham Platner	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18.7%	-1.8pp	$365K	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	—	$417K	active
Jon Ossoff	13.8%	-1.1pp	$358K	active
Josh Shapiro	5.0%	+0.1pp	$502K	active
Mark Cuban	0.6%	—	$1.9M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Kamala Harris	8.0%	+0.6pp	$322K	active
Gavin Newsom	15.8%	-1.1pp	$316K	active
Jared Polis	0.3%	—	$993K	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.7%	—	$1.8M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
George Clooney	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Roy Cooper	0.3%	—	$1.8M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	—	$547K	active
LeBron James	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Chris Murphy	0.3%	-0.1pp	$1.9M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$2.0M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.6%	—	$907K	active
MrBeast	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	—	$792K	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Andy Beshear	2.3%	—	$587K	active
Liz Cheney	0.3%	—	$2.7M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
John Fetterman	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	-0.1pp	$311K	active
Ro Khanna	2.3%	—	$261K	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.4%	—	$802K	active
Jon Stewart	0.8%	-0.1pp	$320K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.7%	-0.05pp	$898K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.8%	-0.05pp	$257K	active
James Talarico	2.1%	+0.05pp	$278K	active

Probability sum: 93.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC