Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Netanyahu out by...?
3 active outcomes in this event
March 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
March 31, 2027 moved -39.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 42.5pp from 71% to 28%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: -39.0pp move, $8K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$8K traded in 24h$136K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
3 active outcomes in this event
January 15, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
January 15, 2027 moved +11.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 9.0pp from 47% to 56%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: +11.0pp move, $936 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$936 traded in 24h$9K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
7 active outcomes in this event
1.8T+
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
1.8T+ moved +8.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 7.0pp, from 69% to 76%, between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #14 of 40 moves reviewed: +8.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 7 outcomes
- 1.8T+75% · +8.5pp
- 1.5–1.8T18% · -5.8pp
- No IPO by December 31, 20273% · -0.7pp
- 0.9–1.2T1% · +0.05pp
- 0.6–0.9T0% · -0.05pp
- 1.2–1.5T5% · -0.3pp
1 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
16 active outcomes in this event
Pete Hegseth
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Pete Hegseth moved +8.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 8.5pp, from 32% to 41%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: +8.0pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Pete Hegseth36% · +8.0pp
- Susie Wiles34% · -2.5pp
- Kristi Noem26% · -2.2pp
- Russell Vought41% · +23.5pp
- Marco Rubio6% · -1.0pp
- Kash Patel15% · +0.5pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
5 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.