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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 98% probability for this outcome, a +0.9pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
98%Recent probability movement (up 0.9pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
98%
24h Change
+0.9pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 98% to 98%, gradually rather than in one jump.
98%
24 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
98%
24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
98%
24 Oct 2026, 11:59 UTC
98%
24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
97%
27 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
98%
28 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.9pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC