Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
13 active outcomes in this event
Miley Cyrus
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Miley Cyrus moved -31.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 28.1pp, from 55% to 27%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: -31.4pp move, $789 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$789 traded in 24h$31K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
- Morgan Wallen12% · -8.0pp
- Olivia Rodrigo8% · -0.8pp
- Drake16% · +8.1pp
- Kanye West6% · -0.2pp
- Harry Styles10% · -18.0pp
- Jay Z87% · -0.3pp
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
OH-10 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Mike Turner (R)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Mike Turner (R) moved -18.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.5pp, from 73% to 63%, between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -18.0pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
13 active outcomes in this event
↑$1.25T
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑$1.25T moved +11.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 28.0pp from 65% to 93%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +11.0pp move, $3K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$3K traded in 24h$4K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
- ↑$1.25T93% · +11.0pp
- ↓$500B3% · +0.05pp
- ↑$1.5T19% · +1.0pp
- ↓$750B6% · -1.0pp
- ↓$600B3% · —
- ↑$5.0T2% · —
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved -10.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 10.0pp, from 18% to 8%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. The move pushed the market close to a final outcome.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -10.5pp move, $2K activity.
$2K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes