Politics

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentMeaningful move-3.8pp (24h)

Probability moved down 3.8pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.

Signal: High

Current

24h Change

-3.8pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 1.6%
No implied probability: 98.5%
Liquidity: $776K
24h activity: $37K
Lifetime volume: $18.1M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.8pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Graham Platner	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Mark Cuban	0.6%	—	$1.9M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	—	$417K	active
Jon Ossoff	13.9%	-0.9pp	$365K	active
Wes Moore	1.6%	-3.8pp	$776K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	19.4%	-0.9pp	$379K	active
Kamala Harris	7.8%	+0.4pp	$319K	active
Gavin Newsom	15.7%	+0.1pp	$306K	active
Josh Shapiro	5.0%	+0.1pp	$504K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Jared Polis	0.3%	—	$995K	active
Jon Stewart	0.7%	-0.1pp	$334K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	+0.05pp	$1.8M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Liz Cheney	0.3%	—	$2.7M	active
LeBron James	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	—	$538K	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
George Clooney	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	—	$1.2M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
John Fetterman	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Chris Murphy	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Andy Beshear	2.3%	—	$592K	active
Ruben Gallego	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.6%	—	$908K	active
MrBeast	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.7%	—	$898K	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.4%	—	$803K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	—	$782K	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$2.0M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	—	$309K	active
Roy Cooper	0.3%	—	$1.8M	active
Ro Khanna	2.3%	—	$253K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
James Talarico	2.1%	—	$272K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.8%	—	$250K	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active

Probability sum: 94.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC