Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
27%
Limited history+9.7pp
24h activity $12KCloses 28 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 42% probability for this outcome, a -2.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
42%Recent probability movement (down 2.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
42%
24h Change
-2.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.5pp from 42% to 42%, gradually rather than in one jump.
42%
13 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
42%
13 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
42%
13 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
43%
13 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
41%
17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
42%
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 26.7% | +9.7pp | $31K | active |
| 30-34 | 8.5% | -2.0pp | $78K | active |
| 25-29 | 23.5% | -1.0pp | $58K | active |
| 35+ | 1.1% | -0.5pp | $56K | active |
| 20-24 | 41.5% | -2.5pp | $49K | active |
Probability sum: 101.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC