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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a -10.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (down 10.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
-10.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 10.0pp, from 18% to 8%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC.
16%
17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
16%
17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
16%
17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
16%
17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
8%
20 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5.5% | -10.5pp | $13K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC