Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
16%
Limited history-4.0pp
24h activity $20KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (up 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
50
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$2.0T | 15.5% | -4.0pp | $10K | active |
| ↑$1.25T | 41.0% | -18.5pp | $4K | active |
| ↑$1.75T | 21.5% | -3.0pp | $8K | active |
| ↑$1.0T | 69.0% | -13.5pp | $6K | active |
| ↓$750B | 12.5% | — | $6K | active |
| ↓$500B | 5.5% | +1.0pp | $11K | active |
| ↑$2.5T | 5.3% | +1.6pp | $19K | active |
| ↑$1.5T | 30.5% | -8.5pp | $4K | active |
| ↓$700B | 8.0% | — | $5K | active |
| ↑$3.0T | 0.9% | +0.3pp | $24K | active |
| ↓$600B | 5.0% | -1.0pp | $21K | active |
| ↑$4.0T | 2.5% | -0.2pp | $4K | active |
| ↓$800B | 17.5% | +1.0pp | $6K | active |
| ↑$5.0T | 2.3% | +0.05pp | $5K | active |
| ↑$900B | 100.0% | +10.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC
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