Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
11%
Limited history
24h activity $112Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome, a -12.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%Probability moved down 12.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
31%
24h Change
-12.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 26.0pp, from 24% to 50%, between 14:39 and 15:00 UTC.
28%
16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
28%
16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
28%
16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
28%
16 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
50%
19 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
31%
20 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 12.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 31.0% | -12.0pp | $32K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 11.0% | — | $28K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC