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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -4.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability moved down 4.3pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
5%
24h Change
-4.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 10.1pp, from 7% to 17%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.
3%
16 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
3%
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
3%
17 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
3%
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
17%
19 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.3pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC