Politics

Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 100.0%
Liquidity: $2.9M
24h activity: $10K
Lifetime volume: $44.0M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 15 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Gavin Newsom	17.8%	+5.3pp	$395K	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Kamala Harris	8.0%	-0.3pp	$328K	active
Michelle Obama	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	-0.1pp	$383K	active
Hunter Biden	0.5%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
Liz Cheney	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Andy Beshear	2.5%	—	$563K	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Mark Kelly	3.3%	+0.3pp	$341K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	19.1%	+1.1pp	$341K	active
Josh Shapiro	6.0%	+0.7pp	$296K	active
Jon Ossoff	16.8%	+1.3pp	$334K	active
MrBeast	0.1%	—	$2.6M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	-0.1pp	$2.6M	active
George Clooney	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Graham Platner	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.5%	+0.05pp	$442K	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
John Fetterman	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	-0.1pp	$1.5M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
James Talarico	2.4%	—	$232K	active
Roy Cooper	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.7%	-0.05pp	$192K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.5M	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.6%	-0.05pp	$651K	active
Bernie Sanders	0.3%	—	$896K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Barack Obama	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Chris Murphy	0.5%	-0.05pp	$1.8M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.8%	-0.3pp	$833K	active
Wes Moore	1.8%	+0.1pp	$349K	active
Mark Cuban	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Jon Stewart	0.1%	-0.1pp	$299K	active
Ro Khanna	1.6%	—	$279K	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.5%	-0.1pp	$790K	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Jared Polis	0.1%	—	$930K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$450K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active

Probability sum: 95.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC