Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
Limited history-0.4pp
24h activity $24KCloses 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -6.9pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Recent probability movement (down 6.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
12%
24h Change
-6.9pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 6.6pp, from 19% to 12%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.
15%
27 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
15%
27 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
15%
27 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
15%
27 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
12%
30 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
12%
1 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.9pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 1.3% | -0.4pp | $443K | active |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 4.3% | -1.2pp | $64K | active |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 11.7% | -6.9pp | $15K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1.2% | +0.05pp | $61K | active |
| Xi Jinping | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $79K | active |
| Chow Hang-tung | 1.9% | +1.0pp | $9K | active |
| UNRWA | 4.5% | +0.4pp | $43K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.1% | — | $94K | active |
| Reporters Without Borders | 3.0% | +1.8pp | $5K | active |
| Save the Children | 9.3% | +1.6pp | $5K | active |
| World Central Kitchen | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $3K | active |
| Julian Assange | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $50K | active |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 4.8% | -0.4pp | $2K | active |
| António Guterres | 0.9% | +0.1pp | $49K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 1.3% | — | $86K | active |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $70K | active |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 0.9% | +0.3pp | $5K | active |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 5.9% | +1.1pp | $6K | active |
| Mark Carney | 1.1% | — | $11K | active |
| International Court of Justice | 6.1% | +0.8pp | $37K | active |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.1% | — | $100K | active |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 1.9% | +0.05pp | $3K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $127K | active |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0.3% | — | $73K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.1% | — | $118K | active |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.1% | — | $73K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1% | — | $122K | active |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.1% | — | $89K | active |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.3% | -0.1pp | $99K | active |
| Narendra Modi | 0.1% | — | $100K | active |
| UNHCR | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $2K | active |
| ICRC | 1.6% | +0.3pp | $4K | active |
Probability sum: 66.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC