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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 5% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
5%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
5 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
5%
6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC