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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability is barely changed (up 2.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
5%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.5pp, from 4% to 6%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC.
7%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
6%
30 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Forward watch
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC