Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $233KCloses 8 Nov 2028
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
0%
30 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1.6M and 24h activity is $5. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | — | $880K | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $1.3M | active |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | +0.5pp | $762K | active |
| John Thune | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | — | $374K | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.1% | — | $258K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.6% | -0.05pp | $390K | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $924K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 50.3% | — | $436K | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $2.0M | active |
| Marco Rubio | 15.4% | — | $349K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.3% | — | $269K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $974K | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.8% | — | $761K | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $370K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.3% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | — | $608K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Brian Kemp | 0.3% | — | $783K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.5% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $1.6M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $690K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.6% | — | $265K | active |
Probability sum: 85.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC