Politics

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.8%
No implied probability: 99.3%
Liquidity: $2.2M
24h activity: $6K
Lifetime volume: $28.9M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Tucker Carlson	2.6%	+0.6pp	$273K	active
Nikki Haley	0.3%	—	$1.3M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.0M	active
Ivanka Trump	0.7%	—	$942K	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$627K	active
J.D. Vance	47.3%	+0.3pp	$280K	active
Elon Musk	0.8%	—	$2.2M	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.9%	—	$317K	active
Ron DeSantis	2.9%	-0.1pp	$299K	active
Joe Kent	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
John Thune	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Marco Rubio	22.9%	-0.1pp	$270K	active
Donald Trump	2.3%	—	$360K	active
Josh Hawley	0.3%	—	$1.0M	active
Greg Abbott	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.9%	—	$757K	active
Brian Kemp	0.3%	—	$941K	active
Byron Donalds	0.5%	—	$1.9M	active
Thomas Massie	0.8%	—	$437K	active
Tom Brady	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Elise Stefanik	0.5%	—	$2.1M	active
Matt Gaetz	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Ted Cruz	0.9%	—	$1.1M	active
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.5%	—	$1.8M	active
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.5%	—	$1.1M	active
Mike Pence	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Erika Kirk	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Kristi Noem	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Rand Paul	0.5%	—	$1.7M	active
Katie Britt	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Candace Owens	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Steve Bannon	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.5%	—	$1.5M	active
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.6%	—	$2.2M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	1.6%	+0.05pp	$625K	active
Kim Kardashian	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active

Probability sum: 93.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC