EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

7%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCMeaningful move+1.0pp (24h)

Probability moved up 1.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.

Signal: High

Current

7%

24h Change

+1.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
6.5%
No implied probability
93.5%
Liquidity
$77K
Market Activity
$1.9M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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