Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
35%
Limited history
24h activity $108Closes 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 65% probability for this outcome, a +0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
65%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
65%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.0pp, from 64% to 66%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
64%
17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
64%
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
64%
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
64%
18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
66%
19 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
65%
22 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $246K and 24h activity is $5. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 34.5% | — | $428K | active |
| Democratic | 65.0% | +0.5pp | $246K | active |
Probability sum: 99.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC