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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability is barely changed (down 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
5%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 1.0pp from 6% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
6%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
6%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
6%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC