Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
2%
Limited history-0.8pp
24h activity $200Closes —
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 9% probability for this outcome, a +1.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
9%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
9%
24h Change
+1.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 5.2pp from 3% to 9%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
3%
17 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
3%
17 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
3%
17 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
3%
17 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
6%
19 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
9%
21 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.6pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $14K and 24h activity is $93. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 2.5% | -0.8pp | $96K | active |
| Tom Homan | 8.5% | +1.6pp | $14K | active |
| Anthony Fauci | 7.8% | -0.05pp | $50K | active |
| Loretta Lynch | 3.0% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 3.6% | — | $20K | active |
| Letitia James | 4.5% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Barack Obama | 1.9% | — | $101K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 2.9% | — | $101K | active |
| John Brennan | 26.5% | — | $1K | active |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 5.5% | — | $13K | active |
| James Comey | 4.5% | — | $20K | active |
| Joe Biden | 0.6% | — | $19K | active |
| James Clapper | 11.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Lisa Cook | 3.6% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Brandon Johnson | 9.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Bill Clinton | 1.3% | — | $57K | active |
| Pam Bondi | 1.9% | +0.05pp | $43K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 4.8% | — | $13K | active |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18.5% | +0.5pp | $8K | active |
| Lee Jun-seok | 10.9% | — | $38 | active |
| Kash Patel | 1.4% | — | $30K | active |
| John Kerry | 1.4% | — | $47K | active |
| Candace Owens | 6.8% | — | $23 | active |
| Susan Rice | 32.5% | +25.0pp | $844 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.