Politics
MediumFresh
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $20KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 73-108 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.1pp.
High activity
7%
+0.1ppVol $20KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $19KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
+2.0ppVol $19KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $19KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $19KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $18KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
3%
+0.3ppVol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-1.0ppVol $18KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.7pp.
High activity
23%
+0.7ppVol $18KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $17KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $17KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $17KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $17KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
2%
-0.2ppVol $17KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $16KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
75%
-2.5ppVol $15KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.4pp.
High activity
25%
+0.4ppVol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $795.0M
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