Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
4%
Limited history-5.3pp
24h activity $3KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 94% probability for this outcome, a +9.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
94%Probability moved up 9.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
94%
24h Change
+9.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 11.0pp from 83% to 94%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
83%
18 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
83%
18 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
83%
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
84%
19 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
89%
22 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
94%
23 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 9.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 93.5% | +9.0pp | $46K | active |
| Christine Fréchette | 4.0% | -5.3pp | $61K | active |
| Charles Milliard | 2.1% | -0.5pp | $57K | active |
| Bernard Drainville | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Sol Zanetti | 0.1% | — | $36K | active |
| Éric Duhaime | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Ruba Ghazal | 0.1% | — | $41K | active |
Probability sum: 99.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC