Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Netanyahu out by...?
3 active outcomes in this event
March 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
March 31, 2027 moved -38.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 41.5pp from 71% to 29%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: -38.5pp move, $8K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$8K traded in 24h$128K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
3 active outcomes in this event
January 15, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
January 15, 2027 moved +10.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 8.5pp from 48% to 56%, gradually rather than in one jump. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: +10.0pp move, $936 activity.
$936 traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
7 active outcomes in this event
1.8T+
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
1.8T+ moved +9.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 17.0pp from 59% to 76%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #14 of 40 moves reviewed: +9.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 7 outcomes
- 1.8T+76% · +9.5pp
- 1.5–1.8T17% · -5.2pp
- No IPO by December 31, 20274% · -0.5pp
- 1.2–1.5T4% · -1.4pp
- 0.9–1.2T1% · —
- 0.6–0.9T0% · -0.05pp
1 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +7.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 7.5pp from 77% to 85%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: +7.5pp move, $8K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$8K traded in 24h$16K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes