Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?
1%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $480Closes 31 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
11%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
11%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $38K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $25K | active |
| December 31 | 11.0% | -1.0pp | $38K | active |
| December 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| January 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| November 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%