Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
86%
Limited history+2.0pp
24h activity $8KCloses 13 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
13%Recent probability movement (down 3.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
13%
24h Change
-3.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Andersson | 85.5% | +2.0pp | $61K | active |
| Ebba Busch | 1.3% | +0.3pp | $92K | active |
| Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist | 0.7% | +0.5pp | $116K | active |
| Ulf Kristersson | 12.5% | -3.0pp | $80K | active |
| Jimmie Åkesson | 1.0% | +0.1pp | $131K | active |
| Nooshi Dadgostar | 0.1% | — | $111K | active |
| Daniel Helldén | 0.1% | — | $134K | active |
| Amanda Lind | 0.1% | — | $125K | active |
| Simona Mohamsson | 0.1% | — | $127K | active |
| Anna-Karin Hatt | 0.1% | — | $132K | active |
Probability sum: 101.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
86%
1%
1%
1%
0%
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