EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

20%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCMeaningful move-2.0pp (24h)

Probability moved down 2.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.

Signal: High

Current

20%

24h Change

-2.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
20.0%
No implied probability
80.0%
Liquidity
$30K
Market Activity
$107K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

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