Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
June 30, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
June 30, 2027 moved +15.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.5pp, from 49% to 59%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #5 of 40 moves reviewed: +15.0pp move, $5K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$5K traded in 24h$27K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Theo FDV above ___ one day after launch?
4 active outcomes in this event
$300M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$300M moved -11.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 31% to 23%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: -11.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
- $300M20% · -11.0pp
- $100M35% · -4.0pp
- $1B0% · —
- $700M1% · —
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
6 active outcomes in this event
Green Party
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Green Party moved +10.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 16.0pp from 61% to 77%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +10.5pp move, $869 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$869 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? moved -10.1pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 12.3pp, from 13% to 25%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -10.1pp move, $812 activity.
$812 traded in 24hLiquidity $14KUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported