Politics
LowFresh
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
+4.0ppVol $3KCloses 31 Oct 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 200 matching politics markets.
Showing 37-72 of 200 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-3.0ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Included because probability moved -8.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
70%
-8.5ppVol $3KCloses 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
88%
-3.0ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Diana Onyeijaka be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
11%
-5.0ppVol $3KCloses 6 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Illinois in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
34%
-7.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MI-13 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
1%
-4.5ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
Included because probability moved -19.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
-19.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat?
Included because probability moved -3.9pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
-3.9ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
68%
+5.0ppVol $2KCloses 8 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Included because probability moved +4.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
20%
+4.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +18.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
24%
-18.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MA-03 House seat?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
-3.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
9%
-5.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Low-confidence: move is +17.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
63%
+17.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Jan 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
+3.4ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
82%
+4.0ppVol $2KCloses 1 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved +5.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
19%
+5.3ppVol $2KCloses 3 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
-3.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
-4.5ppVol $2KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
82%
-4.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the PA-12 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
2%
-3.4ppVol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
14%
+4.7ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
80%
-4.5ppVol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
13%
-3.5ppVol $1KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-6.0ppVol $1KCloses —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Brian Cole be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
Low-confidence: move is +3.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
4%
+3.2ppVol $1KCloses 8 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Included because probability moved -4.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
-4.5ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved +7.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
+7.5ppVol $956Closes 3 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
32%
+3.5ppVol $910Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
74%
-3.5ppVol $863Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved +4.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
27%
+4.0ppVol $855Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +22.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+22.0ppVol $837Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will there be between 100m and 105m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
Low-confidence: move is +14.9pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
21%
+14.9ppVol $812Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +29.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
67%
+29.0ppVol $803Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Chris Murphy be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +10.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
-10.7ppVol $798Closes 10 Aug 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $997K
Back to homepage analytics