Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
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Category
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
2,858 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 91 matching politics markets.
Showing 37-72 of 91 markets.
Ranked by absolute 24h probability movement.
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
49%
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
18%
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
73%
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
70%
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
73%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
60%
Included because probability moved +3.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
97%
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
20%
Included because probability moved +3.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
98%
Included because probability moved +1.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
72%
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
73%
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
23%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
88%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
82%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
73%
Included because probability moved -2.2pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
76%
Included because probability moved +2.2pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
97%
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
84%
Included because probability moved +1.6pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
Included because probability moved +1.6pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
98%
Included because probability moved -1.7pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
Included because probability moved +1.9pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
96%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
Included because probability moved -2.6pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
Included because probability moved -1.6pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
91%
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
70%