Politics
MediumStale data
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-5.0ppVol $61KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 9 of 9 matching politics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
HighFresh
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
-3.5ppVol $31KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
89%
+4.0ppVol $24KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
+5.0ppVol $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Included because probability moved +5.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
73%
+5.5ppVol $13KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +20.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
49%
+20.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $16.7M
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