Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
1%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $96Closes 1 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 7% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
7%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
7%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6.5% | — | $68K | active |
| September 30 | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $41K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%