Geopolitics
HighFresh
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +6.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
21%
+6.5ppVol $117KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 25 of 25 matching geopolitics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
Included because probability moved +8.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
16%
+8.5ppVol $14KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-4.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
Included because probability moved -9.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
-9.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
61%
-6.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
+9.0ppVol $880Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
27%
-3.0ppVol $856Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +6.8pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
+6.8ppVol $377Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Lucy nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+9.0ppVol $350Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+4.5ppVol $176Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +20.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
-20.0ppVol $147Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
-8.5ppVol $138Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
+6.5ppVol $127Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
56%
-3.5ppVol $108Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Fre nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
44%
+3.5ppVol $102Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Low-confidence: move is +4.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
30%
+4.2ppVol $99Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
10%
-3.5ppVol $84Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +18.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+18.5ppVol $62Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-6.5ppVol $61Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
34%
+8.0ppVol $55Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
+7.0ppVol $52Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
31%
-4.5ppVol $13Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
António Guterres out by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
25%
-3.5ppVol $3Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+9.0ppVol $2Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
30%
-4.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp44 markets with notable movementCombined activity $748K
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