Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.4ppVol $2.9MCloses 31 Jul 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 50 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 1-36 of 50 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.3ppVol $1.8MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.3ppVol $1.7MCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.4ppVol $1.6MCloses 31 Oct 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $625KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $261KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $233KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $208KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $188KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $147KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.05ppVol $124KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $53KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $41KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.1ppVol $38KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
Vol $35KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.5ppVol $32KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $28KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $23KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.05ppVol $21KCloses —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $10KCloses —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Netanyahu out by July 31?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.6ppVol $5KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $3KCloses —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp44 markets with notable movementCombined activity $41.3M
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