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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 18% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
18%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
18%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 5.0pp, from 17% to 22%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
16%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
16%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
16%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
16%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
22%
1 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
18%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $8K and 24h activity is $7K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC