Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
40%
Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 26 of 26 matching geopolitics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
63%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
44%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-4.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
61%
-6.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-2.5ppVol $1KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
57%
Vol $887Closes 18 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
+9.0ppVol $880Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
47%
Vol $483Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Lucy nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+9.0ppVol $350Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
65%
-1.5ppVol $209Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+4.5ppVol $176Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Juice Head nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+2.0ppVol $110Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
41%
-0.5ppVol $110Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
56%
-3.5ppVol $108Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Fre nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
44%
+3.5ppVol $102Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +18.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+18.5ppVol $62Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Alp nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-1.5ppVol $62Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-6.5ppVol $61Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
65%
+1.0ppVol $57Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
+7.0ppVol $52Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
52%
+0.5ppVol $45Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $24Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.0ppVol $18Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+9.0ppVol $2Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Sesh nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
+1.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp44 markets with notable movementCombined activity $6.7M
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